So, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is supposedly gearing up for a bounce? Let's be real, the market's about as predictable as a toddler with a box of crayons. Down 2.4% today, trading at $45.53… fourth straight daily drop. Ouch. And this, after failing to stick above $65 since February? Sounds like a classic case of "buy the dip" turning into "catch a falling knife."
Then again, maybe I'm just being cynical. Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White – and who names their kid "Rocky" if not to tempt fate? – says HIMS is nearing a "historically bullish trendline." Apparently, this 200-day moving average thingamajig has worked four other times in the last three years, leading to an average 18.2% gain a month later. Okay, so maybe there's a glimmer of hope? A move of that magnitude would put it back near $51.45. Big whoop.
But here’s the kicker: earnings. HIMS reports after the bell on Monday. Historically, it’s been a total crapshoot. Down after four of the last eight reports, including a 12.4% nosedive in August. The average next-day swing is 13.3%, but investors are pricing in a bigger 17.1% move this time. So, basically, it's gambling. You're betting on whether the market will react like a rational actor or a bunch of caffeine-fueled apes hitting the "buy" and "sell" buttons at random.
And get this: analysts are overwhelmingly "meh" on HIMS. 11 out of 14 are sporting a "hold" or worse rating. Translation: they're too chickenshit to make a real call. "Plenty of room for upgrades," the article says, if the bearish sentiment unwinds. Yeah, and plenty of room for downgrades if HIMS craps the bed. Some analysts believe this Struggling Healthcare Stock Ripe For Bull Notes, and that the stock may be ready for a bull run.
Then there's the Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 80. Apparently, HIMS tends to outperform options traders’ volatility expectations. So what? Does that mean it's a sure thing? Offcourse not. It just means the options market is slightly less clueless than usual.
Honestly, this whole thing feels like a setup. They dangle the "historically bullish trendline" carrot, knowing full well that earnings could send the stock plummeting faster than a politician's approval rating after a scandal. They talk about potential upgrades, conveniently ignoring the very real possibility of downgrades. They tout the SVS score, as if that's some kind of guarantee. It ain't.
And who are we kidding? HIMS sells hair loss pills and ED meds online. It's not exactly curing cancer. It's selling vanity to insecure people. Not that there's anything wrong with that, per se, but let's not pretend it's some kind of revolutionary company poised to change the world.
I bet their marketing budget is bigger than their R&D budget. Just a hunch.
It's a gamble, plain and simple. If you're feeling lucky, throw some cash at HIMS and see what happens. But don't come crying to me when you lose your shirt. I'm just a cynical observer, watching the market churn and laughing at the absurdity of it all.
