The S&P 500 managed a positive tick on Monday, up 0.2%, but let's be clear: this wasn't a broad rally. It was Amazon, Nvidia, and Palantir dragging the rest of the market kicking and screaming. The Nasdaq Composite followed suit with a 0.5% gain, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average tells a different story, shedding 225 points, or 0.5%. A sea of red, masked by a few tech giants.
Amazon's $38 billion cloud infrastructure deal with OpenAI is the headline grabber. Shares surged, fueled by the promise of AI dominance. But let's unpack that number. $38 billion is a big number, no doubt. But how big really? That sum is to be spread out over an undisclosed amount of time. Is this a 5-year deal? A 10-year one? Without knowing the duration, that $38 billion figure is practically meaningless; it's just marketing.
The article mentioned that communication services, materials, and real estate were the big laggards. Everything outside of tech and consumer discretionary goods is struggling. That's a worrying sign of market breadth—or, more accurately, the lack thereof. It's like a sports team carried by a single star player. What happens when that player gets injured?
The 2-year Treasury yield dipped slightly below 3.6%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.1%. The spread is widening. A steeper yield curve can indicate optimism, but it can also signal inflation expectations are rising. I've looked at hundreds of these reports, and the lack of context surrounding these figures is frustrating. What are the market's actual inflation expectations? Are we talking about short-term or long-term pressures?
Then there's the government shutdown, inching closer to becoming the longest in history. Thirty-four days and counting, with the dubious honor of breaking the 35-day record looming on Tuesday. The impact of these shutdowns is always difficult to quantify immediately, but they create a climate of uncertainty that businesses hate. Investment decisions get delayed, hiring freezes get implemented, and the overall economic mood sours.
Mizuho's Daniel O'Regan points to a weaker-than-expected update from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey as a catalyst for Monday's early slide. A single data point shouldn't cause a panic, but it does highlight the fragility of the current market sentiment. Stock Market News for Monday, Nov. 3, 2025: Dow Falls, S&P 500, Nasdaq Rise; Kenvue, IREN, Amazon, Nvidia, Berkshire, Palantir, More Movers
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. We have big tech propping up the entire market, a government shutdown dragging on, and a weak manufacturing survey. Yet, the S&P 500 still manages to eke out a gain. It's like trying to build a house on a foundation of sand.
How much of this AI-driven optimism is based on genuine innovation and how much is just hype? Are investors truly assessing the long-term viability of these companies, or are they just chasing short-term gains? And what happens when the AI bubble inevitably bursts?
