Okay, Cipher Mining's about to drop their Q3 earnings on November 3rd. And Zacks is breathlessly predicting some kind of massive revenue surge – like, 213% from last year? Give me a break. We've all seen this song and dance before. Bitcoin miners promising the moon while the price of the actual Bitcoin bounces around like a hyperactive toddler on a sugar rush.
They're saying the Black Pearl Phase 1 data center is the secret sauce, now fully operational. Apparently, it accounted for almost a quarter of their production back in July. Which, offcourse, was ages ago in crypto time. So, the question is, can Black Pearl keep shining, or will it turn out to be just another overhyped flash in the pan?
And then there's the hash rate. Cipher's patting themselves on the back for exceeding their own projections, aiming for 23.5 exahash per second. Okay, cool. But what does that even mean to the average investor who isn't fluent in crypto-nerd? Is this actually gonna translate to real, tangible profits, or is it just more tech jargon to distract us from the fact that they're still projecting a loss?
Speaking of losses, they’re still expecting to lose 8 cents a share. Which, yeah, is better than the 26 cents they bled last year, but it's still a loss. It's like saying, "Hey, I only crashed my car slightly less this year!" Not exactly a ringing endorsement, is it?
Oh, and let's not forget the "improved fleet efficiency." Down to 16.8 joules per terahash, supposedly making them one of the most efficient Bitcoin miners out there. I'll believe it when I see it. Every company claims to be the most efficient, the most innovative, the most... whatever. It's corporate bingo. I mean, are they gonna pass those savings on to shareholders, or just pocket the extra cash? I'm betting on the latter.
Here's the real kicker, though: Zacks' own model says Cipher Mining isn't likely to beat earnings. They've got a Sell rating, people! A freaking Sell rating! But they're still writing articles hyping up their potential? What gives? Are they trying to pump up the stock price so some insiders can dump their shares? It wouldn't be the first time. As reported by Cipher Mining to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?, the company is set to release its Q3 earnings on November 3rd.
And Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is worth considering, too? Seriously? AMD is up 113.4% year to date?! What does AMD have to do with Cipher Mining? Are we just throwing random tickers at the wall now? Then again, maybe I am just being cynical... But I doubt it.
Of course, the elephant in the room is Bitcoin itself. If Bitcoin tanks, Cipher Mining tanks. End of story. All the fancy data centers and efficient rigs in the world won't save them if the underlying asset goes belly up. And with all the regulatory uncertainty swirling around crypto, who knows what tomorrow will bring?
Look, I'm not saying Cipher Mining is doomed. Maybe they'll pull a rabbit out of their hat and surprise everyone. But I'm not holding my breath. This whole thing smells like another crypto hype train, and I'm not buying a ticket. I'd rather stick with something a little less… volatile.
